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Sindh, Balochistan: Monsoon system has weakened
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193Karachi: The Met Office on Sunday said that the weather system in Sindh and Balochistan has lost its intensity, but still has the potential to generate some rains. The weakening weather system has now shifted widely to south southwest of Karachi in the Arabian Sea, it said.
However, it may still produce a scattered rain-wind-thundershower with few heavy falls in Tharparkar, Umerkot, Thatta, Badin, Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad, Jamshoro, Dadu, Karachi, Khuzdar, Lasbella, Awaran, Kharan and Panjgur till Wednesday.
“Hot and humid weather is expected in most districts of the country with chances of rain-wind-thundershower in Sindh, Balochistan, Kashmir, northeast Punjab and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” the Met said.
Previously, the Met had forecast a heavy rainy spell for parts of Sindh and Balochistan with a warning about an ensuing urban flooding and overflow of rivers and Nullahs.
Pakistan’s trade deficit widens 57% YoY in FY22
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193Pakistan's trade deficit widened by 57% during fiscal year 2021-22, and reached $48.67 billion compared to $30.96 billion during the fiscal year 2020-21, revealed official provisional data, shared by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) on Monday.
The country’s exports registered a growth of 10% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, increasing from $2.63 billion in May 2022 to $2.89 billion in June 2022.
According to the provisional data, country’s exports increased by 27% and remained $31.85 billion in the fiscal year, 2021-22, compared to $25.16 billion recorded during the same period of 2020-21.
Imports increased by 43% during the (July-June) of the last fiscal year and stood at $80.51 billion compared to $56.12 billion during the same period in fiscal 2020-2021 year, the PBS stated.
July-May trade deficit widens 57.85pc to $43.334bn YoY
A widening trade gap has become a headache for policymakers, as the country struggles to curb an outflow of dollars, which puts pressure on the currency.
Meanwhile, the incumbent government has been actively pursuing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revive its stalled Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.
Last week, Pakistan received combined economic and financial targets for the seventh and eighth reviews of its IMF bailout programme, said Finance Minister Miftah Ismail.
On Twitter, Miftah said the government had received the lender's Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for both reviews, following meetings last week between the two sides. The IMF programme is widely seen as crucial for Pakistan's economy, which has struggled with high inflation and a widening current account deficit.
Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit widened by 37% on a year-on-year basis, jumping from $3.55 billion in June 2021 to $4.85 billion in June 2022.
Imports registered an increase of 26% on a year-on-year basis and jumped from $6.28 billion in June 2021 to $7.74 billion in June 2022.
Further, exports registered 6% growth on a year-on-year basis and increased from $2.73 billion in June 2021 to $2.89 billion in June 2022.
Provisional figures show that the trade deficit widened by 17% on a month-on-month basis from $4.15 billion in May 2022 to $4.85 billion in June 2022.
Imports increased by 14% on a month-on-month basis and remained $7.74 billion in June 2022 compared to $6.78 billion in May 2022.
Pakistan looks forward to engaging with US at all levels: PM Shehbaz
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Pakistan looks forward to engaging with the US administration at all levels to promote bilateral relations, including trade and investment.
On the occasion of the US on their Independence Day on Monday, the PM extended “his heartiest felicitations and greetings to the people and government of the US.”
Earlier, Ambassador of the United States to Pakistan, Donald Blome had called on the PM and reaffirmed his country’s commitment to further strengthen and reinforce Pakistan-US ties.
During the meeting, the PM highlighted the historic, longstanding ties between the two countries and underscored Pakistan’s desire to further develop this relationship on the basis of mutual respect, trust, and interest.
PM Shehbaz for further deepening US-Pak relationship
The premier emphasized that given Pakistan’s economic and demographic potential, American companies needed to be encouraged by the Development Finance Corporation of the US to invest in Pakistan’s large market.
Brent oil may revisit June 22 low of $107.03
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193SINGAPORE: Brent oil may revisit its June 22 low of $107.03 per barrel, as the downtrend from $125.19 has resumed. The resumption was confirmed by the deep drop from the June 29 high of $120.41.
The drop has almost reversed by the rise from $107.03. The continuous chart was a bit distorted, due to the big monthly spread.
The September chart offers a smoother and more consistent reading.
A downward wave C seems to be unfolding towards $105.54, its 61.8% projection level.
Brent oil may retest support at $113.97
A break above $112.15 may lead to a gain into $113.71-$116.24 range.
On the daily chart, oil is riding on a wave (C) which could travel to $96.93, the bottom of the wave (A).
The support at $106.89 looks vulnerable under the second attacks by bears.
A break could open the way toward $96.93-$103.09 range.
Tropical storm Bonnie becomes third hurricane of season off Mexico coast
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193Tropical storm Bonnie turned into a Category 1 hurricane off the southwest coast of Mexico on Sunday evening, packing maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour (130 km/h) and higher gusts, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
Bonnie, the third hurricane of the 2022 eastern north Pacific season, made landfall as a tropical storm on the Caribbean coast near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border on Friday evening, bringing heavy rains across the region, before crossing over to the Pacific on Saturday.
In El Salvador, authorities confirmed one death due torrential rains.
13 dead as police clash with gang suspects in western Mexico
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said on Twitter that classes would be suspended across the country on Monday.
The hurricane may reach Category 2 classification on Monday night with winds of up to 110 miles per hour (177 km/h) as it travels parallel to the coast before moving away from Mexico on Wednesday, according to Mexico’s national meteorological service.
Ocean swells generated by Bonnie “are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” NHC said in an advisory.
The Mexican meteorological service warned that the hurricane could result in intense rains, mudslides, floods, strong wind gusts and ocean waves up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the country’s southern Pacific coast.
Palm oil may stabilize around 4,588 ringgit
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193SINGAPORE: Palm oil may stabilize around a support at 4,588 ringgit per tonne, and test a resistance at 4,742 ringgit thereafter.
The bounce from 4,493 ringgit may extend. It could consist of three waves.
The wave c is unfolding towards 4,896-5,086 ringgit range.
These waves make up a bigger wave 4, which will be reversed by a downward wave 5.
The downtrend is expected to resume in the range of 4,896-5,086 ringgit.
Indonesia looks to raise palm oil export quota
A break below 4,588 ringgit could open the way towards 4,267-4,398 ringgit range.
On the daily chart, the contract seems to be again stabilizing around a support at 4,543 ringgit.
The contract may consolidate in the range of 4,543-5,015 ringgit for one or two days before falling.
US oil may test support at $106.10
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193SINGAPORE: US oil may test a support at $106.10 per barrel, a break below that could open the way towards $103.45.
The drop from the June 29 high of $114.05 is classified as a continuation of the downtrend from the June 14 high of $123.68.
The drop adopted a five-wave mode, which suggests a very limited bounce from the July 1 low of $104.56.
Indeed, the bounce may have completed around a resistance at $109.27.
Brent oil may retest support at $113.97
Oil is poised to fall towards $104.56 again.
A break above $109.27 may lead to a gain into $110.39-$112.03 range.
On the daily chart, oil is riding on a wave (C) which is expected to travel to $100.46 or a much lower level of $86.11.
The white candlestick on July 1 looks not big enough to form a reversal signal together with the preceding black candle.
Most likely, the wave (C) would continue soon.
Oil prices slip as recession fears rumble on, tight supply stems losses
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193MELBOURNE: Oil prices fell on Monday, paring gains from the previous session, as fears of a global recession weighed on the market even as supply remains tight amid lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude futures for September slipped 36 cents, or 0.3%, to $111.27 a barrel at 0300 GMT, having jumped 2.4% on Friday.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery dropped 34 cents, or 0.3%, to $108.09 a barrel, after climbing 2.5% on Friday.
"The recession fears are the primary bearish factor that has capped the surge in oil prices. Rising rates and a plunge in consumer confidence have dented the fuel demand outlook, while data shows that the US petroleum refinery capacity has improved," said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.
"In addition, a strong USD also weakens broad commodity markets, including crude prices."
US consumer sentiment dropped to a record low in June despite a marginal improvement in the outlook for inflation, as the Federal Reserve said its commitment to reining in inflation was "unconditional" and increasing concerns of interest rate hikes. Oil supply concerns still remain, preventing steeper price falls.
Oil prices up 3% on supply outages
"Energy markets remain laden with specific supply risks that makes being short a nervy experience," Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Tobin Gorey said.
Output from the 10 members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd, a Reuters survey showed.
Declines in Nigeria and Libya offset increases by Saudi Arabia and other large producers, and Libya faces further supply disruption due to escalating political unrest, making the likelihood of OPEC meeting its newly increased production quotas even more unlikely, said ANZ Research analysts in a note.
Libya's exports have dropped to between 365,000 bpd and 409,000 bpd, down about 865,000 bpd compared to normal levels, the National Oil Corp said last week.
In a further hit to supply, a planned strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers this week could cut the country's oil and condensate output by 130,000 bpd.
Traders will be watching out for official prices for August from top oil exporter Saudi Arabia for signs of how tight the market is, with refiners bracing for another sharp increase close to the record set in May.
Nine refining sources surveyed by Reuters expected Saudi's flagship Arab Light crude official selling price could rise by about $2.40 a barrel from the previous month.
Weather Forecast
PAR Jul 4, 2022 193Synoptic Situation
Monsoon currents are penetrating in upper/central and southern parts of the country.
Monday
Hot and humid/partly cloudy weather is expected in most districts of the country with chances of rain-wind-thundershower in Sindh, Balochistan, Kashmir, Islamabad, northeast Punjab and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Tuesday
Hot and humid/partly cloudy weather is expected in most districts of the country with chances of rain-wind-thundershower in Sindh, Balochistan, Kashmir, Islamabad, upper Punjab and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Past 24 Hour Weather
Hot and humid weather prevailed over most parts of the country. However, rain-wind/thundershower occurred at isolated places in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Balochistan, Punjab and Sindh.
Rainfall(mm): Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Balakot 40, Takht Bai 05, Cherat 02, Malam Jabba 01, Kashmir: Muzaffarabad (Airport T24, City 20), Rawalakot, Garhi Dupatta 15, Balochistan: Panjgur 22, Lasbella, Ormara 09, Kalat 05, Barkhan 03, Punjab: Murree 08, Attock 05, Bahawalpur, Jhelum, Narowal, Sialkot 01, Sindh: Mithi 06, Karachi (Saadi Town 03 and North Karachi 01).
Yesterday's Highest Temperature’s (°C): Nokkundi, Dalbandin 47, Chillas 46 and Sibbi 45.